Hi and welcome to the monthly macro newsletter!

I am writing to you from Tel Aviv, where I have spent most of the past two weeks in safe rooms and underground bomb shelters. With a pause in missiles raining down on Tel Aviv, the biggest question for me right now is will the Israel-Iran ceasefire hold? What does an even larger Israel-Iran war mean? What will happen if the IRGC falls? What would be the repercussions for the international economy? What happens if the Strait of Hormuz is blockaded?

These are not just regional questions — they have global consequences. And yet, even amid geopolitical instability, fintech continues to charge forward. Hopefully the ceasefire holds and the tech world can continue to innovate in peace.

IPOs Starting After the Trade War

First off let’s talk about the trade war. Fear of Trump’s trade war put a short halt on fintech IPOs.

With the trade war starting to ease, some fintechs are starting to go public. Most notably, Chime went public. Chime’s stock surged about 59% after pricing at $27, raising $864  million and it is now being valued at around $11.6  billion. This valuation is down from its 2021 valuation of $25 billion, but still signals investor confidence. This goes hand in hand with a calming of the US stock market, signs of easing interest rates, and faith in neobanks rising - all good signs for future fintech IPOs.