In a few short weeks, many of us will be gathered in NYC for the Fintech Formal. A time where we can all forget about the lack of funding, the looming bankruptcies, bank partnership turbulence, and more. Did I really just say all that? 

But when we gather again in 2024, will the picture be as grim? We asked experts as well as the broader community, and the answer depends on who you ask and which sector or region you’re asking about. 

We also asked about what the biggest surprises have been over the past 6 months (bank failures) and what the biggest fears and predictions are for the next 6 (regulation is gonna be a hot topic). Note that not every person consented to their name being used, but they did give us their info when filling out the survey to confirm results. 

Let’s dive in!

Overall

Across the board, industry-wide sentiment was a resounding Neutral-to-Bullish 3.57 out of 5. We’ll track how this figure evolves over the course of future bi-annual surveys, but the responses in this go-around give us a really strong baseline to understand where everyone’s head is at today.

Sectors

In terms of which areas people are most bullish and bearish on, payments is still the golden child. Not surprising given that the payments industry is projected to reach $505.3B (19.7% CAGR) by DataHorizzon Research, and FedNow recently launched. When asked for predictions over the next 6 months, Scott Rosenblum of LEVEL PR echoed others in predicting that FedNow will gain adoption as the “benefits of FedNow start to blossom.” Open banking, payroll and business financial management also had a lot of bullish sentiment. 

And, unsurprisingly, crypto is where folks are the most bearish. However, if you look at predictions for the next six months, you’ll see that there are some experts and community members who expect crypto to make a comeback (as of this writing, Bitcoin is priced at $35,220– a roughly $10,000 increase from pre-FTX collapse levels). 

Lastly, while there was consensus on several areas, there was a large amount of divergence on the personal financial management space. Consumer neobanks and BaaS/LaaS also had sizable divergences. With all four of these, community members were more bullish than the experts we surveyed. 

Geographies 

Respondents were most bullish on Latin America, and most bearish on Europe and the UK. This was surprising given that the UK is second only to the US in the number of fintech unicorns, although much like other regions, there’s been a big valuation reset for companies based there.