Hello, Fintech Friends!

The IPO window is open again. In just a couple of months, we’ve seen three IPOs and one SPAC listing: a stablecoin issuer Circle, neobank Chime, and two brokerages, eToro and Webull. The market welcomed them warmly, bringing fresh optimism for fintech nerds like me.

However, under the surface, things look less encouraging. The TWIF Index is down year-to-date, underperforming both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. Visa is doing ok, but American Express and Mastercard are flat. Fiserv, Global Payments, PayPal, and Block are all down in double digits. Even the seemingly untouchable FICO has taken a hit.

Maybe it’s because the innovation is finally starting to bite the incumbents. Stablecoins threaten Visa, Mastercard, and Amex. Stripe and Adyen are out-innovating payment giants like Fiserv, Global Payments, and FIS. And Coinbase and Robinhood don't have to fight the regulators anymore, and can finally unleash their engineering power to change how people bank.

Or maybe the market sees limited upside in the large fintech players and is now chasing growth in smaller, riskier companies. That would explain the rally in stocks like Sezzle and Dave. And that would explain why Oscar and Lemonade are trending on X again. I am a die-hard optimist, but this is starting to feel a bit like 2021.

Is this the last thrust of this cycle?

Jevgenijs
p.s. Have feedback? Ping me on X/Twitter
Happy to hear how we can improve this column!

Best-Performing Fintech Stocks

The picture of the best-performing fintech stocks has not changed much since my last article. It's still the same group of small caps and Brazilian fintechs (and Robinhood, which continues its crazy run). One company is missing from the chart below, but it would easily top the list: Circle (more on that in a moment).