Hello, Fintech Friends!

Every year in fintech has its narrative. In 2025, it was stablecoins. Just look at how stocks of remittance businesses performed last year. Strong growth in the business did not translate into stock performance. Stablecoin payments are still early, but they've found an undeniable product-market fit in cross-border payments. That's a strong narrative to fight against.

In 2026, the narrative is clearly AI. Something changed at the end of last year. AI got good at writing quality code and even building Excel tables. I'm sure you've heard of Claude Code and Claude Cowork. So who in fintech might get hurt or benefit from this narrative?

The first thought is software vendors that serve banks. FIS, Fiserv, Jack Henry. Last year, Fiserv announced plans to consolidate its legacy core platforms, a multi-year migration effort to modernize decades of accumulated tech debt. AI could accelerate that consolidation. But here's the uncomfortable question: what if banks decide they can just build their own software instead?

Payments is a software business now. Adyen employs more people in tech than in any other function. I'm not saying someone can vibe code Adyen or Stripe. You cannot vibe code licenses, connectivity to payment rails, fraud models, and five-nines uptime. But there may be less room for businesses that simply wrap a legacy processor in some piece of software and sell it to SMEs.

Then there is lending. There were some pockets of fintech innovation (lending to the underbanked, SMEs, and corporate credit cards), but banks managed to hold their ground in the segments they care about. Could disruption in lending finally come from agentic commerce? Credit card issuers built defensible moats through decades of investment in brand loyalty. An AI agent has no loyalty.

Last year, people mocked Klarna for going all-in on AI. I don't think they would be mocking them this year. AI is real. Let's see who's a better steward of it: banks or fintechs.

Jevgenijs
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