The Public Ledger: Everyone Is Bearish Again

Hello, Fintech Friends!

My goal with the TWIFT Index was to create a simple way to track how public fintech companies are performing. It consists of just 15 stocks and is price-weighted.

The TWIFT Index is doing its job: it captured the strong run fintech had in 2024, and it clearly shows how ugly 2026 is shaping up so far.

Out of curiosity, I looked at how the TWIFT Index would have performed in 2022. It was a difficult year for markets and public fintech companies. At its lowest point in June 2022, it would have been down 34%. This year, it is already down 29%, and we are only in March.

Looking back, 2022 feels obvious. The Fed raised rates aggressively to fight inflation and markets repriced accordingly. But it did not feel obvious at the time. Very few expected tightening at that pace, and no one knew when the pain would end.

So buying fintech at any point in 2022 felt like a crazy trade. However, it turned out to be a great time to buy. Robinhood traded under $8, Nubank under $4, and Shopify under $30. Look where they are now despite this year’s correction.

This year, the drivers are different: potential disruption from AI, conflict in the Middle East, and growing recession concerns. The Nasdaq is down nearly 10%, and IGV, an ETF that tracks software stocks, is down 25%. Buying stocks, especially fintech, feels crazy again.

But this may be exactly the moment to stop fearmongering and start doing the work. Many fintech companies have the balance sheets to weather a correction, and will emerge stronger on the other side.

Ask yourself who can realistically stop Adyen or Stripe from continuing to take share from incumbents. Or whether you truly expect a new wave of BNPL startups to displace players like Affirm and Klarna. And good luck to anyone trying to stand in Shopify’s way. These companies will continue to execute and grow.

I want to own many of these names. But valuations in 2024 and 2025 were often too high. Periods like 2026, much like 2022, may offer a rare opportunity to buy them at more reasonable prices.

This is not financial advice, obviously. Just an observation from someone who has followed fintech through both ups and downs.

Jev

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