Signals: Summer earnings, winter vibes

Hello, Fintech Friends!

In my previous column in June, I warned that under the surface, public fintechs were not OK. The second quarter earnings season has proved me right, only it’s turning out even worse than I expected. The TWIF Index is badly underperforming both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, and the gap is widening.

FICO, FIS, Fiserv, PayPal, Coinbase, and even Block, which seemed to be finally reaccelerating growth, all took hits after reporting earnings. Card schemes are still holding up well, but have begun to underperform the broader indices. There are isolated pockets of strength in areas like lending. And then there are the true standouts, like Robinhood and Shopify, both big wins for Cathie Wood, whose ARK Fintech Innovation fund also holds Circle, Bitcoin, and... Palantir.

Fintech companies are still innovating, winning market share, and growing earnings, and many have balance sheets strong enough to fuel further growth or survive a downturn. So why does this earnings season feel like winter for fintech? Why the concern? What is the market seeing that I can’t?

Jevgenijsp.s. Have feedback? Ping me on X/TwitterHappy to hear how we can improve this column!

Most likely, but by the time this column is published, Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) will become the best-performing Fintech stock this year. What a run!

Fair Isaac Corporation, better known as FICO, has had a rough year. The stock has fallen from over $2,400 in December 2024 to under $1,400 today, following a major blow to its core business. Earlier this year, the Federal Housing Finance Agency approved the use of VantageScore for loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, ending FICO’s monopoly in mortgage underwriting.

On the latest earnings call, FICO’s CEO, William Lansing, warned that competition could hurt the industry, as lenders may choose the most “lax” score to qualify more borrowers. He argued this could increase risk in the system and further entrench the influence of the big three credit bureaus, Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion, who own VantageScore. In Q3 2025, FICO’s Scores segment contributed 60% of the company's revenue and over 90% of operating income.

Still, the CEO struck a defiant tone, arguing that replacing the FICO Score won’t be quick or easy. The score is deeply embedded in hundreds of models and processes across financial institutions, and many lenders aren’t eager to retool their systems following the FHFA’s decision. FICO still dominates the credit scoring market, but the recent change may limit its ability to continue raising prices, a key driver of revenue growth in the past.

Read more: Challenger to FICO Credit Scores Gets Green Light for Use in Mortgages

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FICO stock performance: -33% YTD, -23% 1Y

Fiserv’s Q2 2025 results showed continued growth deceleration at Clover, its most important growth business. Clover’s revenue rose 30% YoY, but payment volume grew just 8%, down from 17% a year ago. The company now expects Clover’s payment volume to grow 9% for the full year. Despite the slowdown, Fiserv’s new CEO confirmed the 2025 target of $3.5 billion in Clover revenue.

While Clover makes up only about 17% of Fiserv’s expected 2025 revenue, it has been a key growth driver in an otherwise steady and diversified business. With payment volume growth slowing, investors are getting nervous. Fiserv’s price-to-earnings multiple has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade, likely reflecting concerns that Clover’s best days may be behind it.

The challenge for Fiserv is finding what comes next. Hopes were high for CashFlow Central, a new SMB solution powered by Melio, which Fiserv backed in its latest funding round. But those ambitions took a hit after news emerged that Melio is being acquired by Xero, adding a lot of uncertainty. For now, investors are left wondering where the next leg of growth will come from. Fiserv stock is down more than 40% since its peak in January.

Read more: Fiserv Q2 2025 earnings release

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Fiserv stock performance: -35% YTD, -16% 1Y

Chime reported its first quarter as a public company. The company ended the quarter with 8.7 million active members, up 23% YoY, and processed $32.5 billion in purchase volume, an 18% increase YoY. Average revenue per active member rose 12% YoY to $245, driving total revenue up 37% YoY to $528 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $16 million, compared to $3 million a year ago.

Chime went public on June 12, 2025, pricing its shares at $27 each, raising about $864 million and securing a fully diluted valuation of around $11.6 billion. On its first trading day under the ticker CHYM, the stock opened sharply higher (above $44) before settling in and closing well above the IPO price. However, the market’s reaction to Chime’s debut earnings report was less enthusiastic. Shares fell more than 14% after the results, despite strong results.

Chime expects 2025 revenue of $2.135-2.155 billion, up 28–29% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA of $84-94 million, a sharp reversal from a $7 million loss in 2024. Profitability is getting a boost from MyPay, its cash advance product launched last year, which is gaining traction. Cash App, Chime’s closest rival, is seeing similar momentum with its Cash App Borrow product. But the real battle isn’t Chime vs. Cash App: it’s both of them vs. the banks.

Read more: Chime Reports Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results

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We’ll be publishing a deep dive on Chime later this month.

Stay tuned!

Visa and Mastercard delivered solid results in their latest quarters, driven by continued strength in consumer spending, healthy cross-border activity, and value-added services. Visa’s FY Q3 2025 net revenue grew 14% YoY to $10.2 billion, while adjusted EPS rose 23% to $2.98. Mastercard reported FY Q2 2025 revenue of $8.13 billion, up 17%, with adjusted EPS climbing 16% to $4.15.

Despite the steady performance, Visa and Mastercard stocks have started to lag behind major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, a reversal from the first half of the year. While they’ve held up well in 2025, investor appetite may be shifting toward higher-growth tech names. With high valuations, the market may be waiting to see if growth can hold up amid tariff-related uncertainty.

Or, perhaps, investors believe that stablecoins pose a real risk to Visa and Mastercard’s push into commercial and cross-border payments, key growth areas beyond consumer spend. By enabling near-instant, low-cost transfers without traditional card rails, stablecoins could chip away at the high-margin flows the networks are targeting. While adoption is still early, some investors may begin to apply a small valuation discount to reflect this long-term risk.

Read more: Visa FY Q3 2025 earnings release & Mastercard Q2 2025 earnings release

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Visa stock performance: +6% YTD, +29% 1Y

Mastercard stock performance: +9% YTD, +26% 1Y

Shopify delivered a strong quarter, beating nearly all analysts’ estimates across key metrics. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) reached $87.8 billion, up 31% YoY, while gross payment volume (GPV) rose to $57 billion, up from 61% in Q2 2024. Revenue grew 31% YoY to $2.68 billion, gross profit increased 25% YoY to $1.3 billion, and operating income rose 21% YoY to $291 million.

Growth was broad-based, led by strength in the U.S. and accelerating demand in Europe. International GMV increased 42% YoY, offline GMV rose 29%, B2B GMV doubled, and large brands like Starbucks, Burton Snowboards and Canada Goose joined the platform. International markets and cross-border commerce also contributed meaningfully. The company maintained strong profitability, posting a 16% free cash flow margin.

Shopify remains at the forefront of innovation, from crypto to agentic commerce. This quarter, it partnered with Coinbase to make it easier for merchants to accept USDC stablecoin payments. Powered by Coinbase’s Commerce Payment Protocol, the system works like regular card payments and supports features like refunds and payment holds. Merchants can also automatically convert USDC into local currency, simplifying crypto payments for international sales.

The only concern: the stock traded at over 100x forward P/E multiple after the earnings.

Read more: Shopify Q2 2025 earnings presentation

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Shopify stock performance: +40% YTD, +118% 1Y

FICO used to top these lists, but as I mentioned earlier, the stock hasn’t been doing so well lately. In its place, we have a newcomer, Circle, a company almost everyone seems bearish on. Yet, it trades at some of the highest multiples in the industry.