Signals: A not-so-stable year in fintech

Hello, Fintech Friends!

Maybe it’s confirmation bias, but it feels like fintech has narrowed to stablecoins. That’s where all the action is: new stablecoins, new blockchains, and a steady wave of M&A rumors as traditional players try to buy their way into relevance. The center of gravity in fintech has clearly shifted, and stablecoins have become the main event. Ironically, it’s been a not-so-stable year for fintech.

For a while, fintech IPOs looked like a bright spot. Circle, Chime, Klarna, and eToro finally made it to the public markets, and investors initially cheered each debut. But that enthusiasm didn’t last. Chime, Klarna, and eToro are now trading below their IPO prices, and Navan, one of the most recent listings, fell sharply on its first day. Even the IPO pops are gone.

Meanwhile, most payment companies are down, some sharply so. Even Visa and Mastercard are underperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and the Fintech Index correctly reflects that weakness. So don’t let the excitement around stablecoins fool you; it hasn’t been a great year for public fintechs.

Jevgenijsp.s. Have feedback? Ping me on X/TwitterHappy to hear how we can improve this column!

The ten best-performing fintech stocks this year include four Brazilian fintechs, four lenders, and two brokerages. The Brazilian companies fall into the same categories: lenders and brokerages.

...and if you’re not a Brazilian fintech or a U.S. lender or brokerage, it’s been a tough year. Payment stocks are mostly down, maybe a sign investors are getting nervous about stablecoins. Financial software names are struggling too; this time, it’s AI keeping everyone on edge.

p.s. Don’t be fooled by the strong performance of the “Schemes / Networks” category: it’s mostly driven by American Express and Capital One (in other words, lenders). Visa and Mastercard, meanwhile, have badly underperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.

What a year for Robinhood! The company has been one of the best-performing fintech stocks, and one of the top performers in the entire S&P 500. Its market capitalization even surpassed Coinbase’s, as it continues to scale crypto trading volume at a faster pace. The rally reflects powerful tailwinds: a bull market in equities, a continuing crypto cycle, and the rise of prediction markets.

But the most important driver has likely been Robinhood’s unmatched product launch velocity. The pace of innovation over the last couple of years has been remarkable: Robinhood now operates 11 businesses each generating more than $100 million in annual revenue, spanning options and crypto trading, securities lending, Gold subscriptions, and emerging ventures like prediction markets. Few fintechs have built such a broad portfolio so quickly, or turned product diversification into such a consistent growth engine.

Robinhood’s next chapter is about going deeper into financial services in the U.S. and taking its expanding lineup global. In the U.S., it has launched the Gold Card and is rolling out checking and savings accounts. Abroad, it already counts 700,000 customers across the UK and EU using its brokerage and crypto products. Can Robinhood outship the competition chasing the same ambitions?

Read more: Robinhood Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation

📈

Robinhood's stock performance: +249% YTD, +344% 1Y (crazy!)

It’s been a brutal year for Fiserv. The company delivered another terrible quarter, with the stock now down 69% year-to-date. Once seen as one of the most stable names in financial infrastructure, Fiserv is facing a full-blown reset. The company's new CEO, Mike Lyons, launched the "One Fiserv" action plan, reshuffled the management team, and appointed new Co-Presidents and a CFO in an effort to reorient the organization.

The numbers show just how deep the challenges run. In Q3 2025, Financial Solutions revenue declined 3% YoY, with Digital Payments down 5% YTD and Banking down 7% YTD. That’s particularly troubling because these are segments, where Fiserv faces minimal competition from new fintech entrants, a space it once dominated with legacy banking and core-processing products. The slowdown suggests that even its most defensible businesses are losing momentum.

As a result, Fiserv cut its 2025 guidance sharply, lowering expected organic revenue growth to 3.5–4.0% (down from 10%) and adjusted EPS to $8.50–$8.60 (down from $10.15–$10.30). Many investors now feel misled by former CEO Frank Bisignano’s optimism, as the company’s years of underinvestment in technology have finally caught up with it. The strategy of managing for EPS rather than innovation has reached its limit, and Fiserv is now paying the price.

Read more: Fiserv Stock Plunges 47% as Results Confound Wall Street

📈

Fiserv's stock performance: -69% YTD, -69% 1Y

Mastercard doubles down on stablecoins. The company is racing to catch up with Visa, which already supports settlement in multiple stablecoins across four blockchains. Mastercard’s first step came through a partnership with Ripple, WebBank, and Gemini to pilot stablecoin settlement for card transactions. The initiative uses Ripple’s regulated stablecoin, RLUSD, on the XRP Ledger to settle transactions between WebBank and Mastercard’s network.

Moreover, Reuters recently reported that Mastercard is in advanced talks to acquire ZeroHash, a crypto infrastructure provider that powers stablecoin on- and off-ramps for companies like MoonPay, Shift4, and Interactive Brokers, in a deal valued at $2 billion. At the same time, both Mastercard and Coinbase have reportedly held separate discussions to buy BVNK, a U.K.-based platform offering stablecoin orchestration services.

The rumored acquisitions could allow Mastercard to strengthen stablecoin capabilities in Mastercard Move, its real-time payments network. Visa recently enabled stablecoin funding for Visa Direct transactions, allowing businesses to pre-fund cross-border payouts with USDC. Integrating similar functionality would position Mastercard to offer faster, cheaper global settlements, and keep pace with Visa as stablecoins become the next-generation payment rails.

Read more: Mastercard poised to buy crypto firm Zerohash

📈

Mastercard's stock performance: +4.8% YTD, +6.6% 1Y

Navan, the business travel and expense management software maker, went public on October 30, pricing its IPO at $25 per share for a valuation of around $6.2 billion. The Palo Alto-based company was founded in 2015 with a mission to simplify corporate travel by helping its users book hotels and transportation, manage expenses, and automate approvals. Navan serves more than 10,000 active customers, including Zoom, Canva, and Paysafe.

In fiscal 2025 (year ended January 31, 2025), Navan’s revenue grew 33% YoY, from $402 million to $537 million, while net losses narrowed by 45% to $181 million. The company’s key metrics also improved, with gross booking volume up 32% to $6.6 billion and payment volume up 37% to $3.7 billion. Higher booking volume drives more travel commissions and service fees, while growing payment volume boosts interchange and software revenue from its expense management platform.

Still, investor enthusiasm cooled quickly after the debut. Navan’s stock fell 20% on its first day of trading, closing at $20. It now trades at around $17.86 per share and has a market cap of $4.4 billion. Chime, Klarna, and eToro are also trading below their IPO prices, though they at least enjoyed brief post-listing pops. With Navan’s disappointing debut, it’s starting to look like the fintech IPO wave may be losing steam.

Read more: Navan Form S-1

📈

Navan's stock performance: $17.86, down 28% from its IPO price

Block’s stock sold off after earnings despite clear improvements across both Square and Cash App. In the third quarter, Square’s GPV growth accelerated to 12% (though gross profit grew a more modest 9% due to higher processing costs as the company diversified its partner network). Cash App’s gross profit rose 24%, continuing to drive the bulk of Block’s growth. Meanwhile, Proto, the company’s emerging Bitcoin mining product line, generated its first revenue.

Square’s growth was broad-based, with food and beverage GPV up 17% YoY, retail up 12% YoY, and services up 7% YoY. Growth was especially strong among mid-market sellers as Square continued to expand its field sales team. Meanwhile, Cash App has finally reached 58 million monthly active users, with inflows per transacting active up 10% YoY and primary banking actives up 18% YoY to 8.3 million, driven by more users bringing in direct deposits.

Block expects momentum to continue into year-end, guiding to over 19% YoY gross profit growth in the fourth quarter. Management also announced Cash App Releases, modeled after Square’s launch events, with the first on November 13 to showcase new AI, bitcoin, and banking features. After years of uneven execution, Block finally seems to have regained its rhythm...but the market didn’t seem to care.

Read more: Block Q3 2025 Shareholder Letter

📈

Block's stock performance: -23% YTD, -13% 1Y

Since my last write-up, valuation multiples in the payments and e-commerce sectors have started to compress, a reflection of slowing growth expectations. Let’s see where we end the year.